Creating money out of thin air
My friend Scott sent me this video of a magician creating money out of thin air. I thought it was pretty good. This guy is better than a central banker. If only he could do trillion dollar platinum...
View ArticleCyprus Hill – Insane in the Brain: The New European Bailout Anthem
The latest news is the bank levy on small deposits could be lifted - or at least minimized. Reuters is the original source for this. As Ryan Avent just tweeted, the small deposit levy was insane in the...
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QE will end this year after tapering off in June
I was on BNN's Headline with Howard Green yesterday talking about the Fed's QE program. I said that QE would be tapered and I believe it will likely end at the end of this year if the economy does not...
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On Japan’s widowmaker trade and Reinhart and Rogoff
I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan's sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term...
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On wealth taxes as a talking point and Germany’s leading role in Europe
Here is the video of an interview I did with Max Keiser on the situation in Europe. A lot of our discussion revolves around why the Germans actually do want a cohesive Europe but feel compelled to...
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Walbucks: Bitcoin for Walmart
This post is about three different topics, Bitcoin and e-Payments, the Minimum Wage, and consumer spending and Walmart. There has been a lot of discussion about all three and I believe I have an...
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Bubbles: Jeremy Grantham, Fingers of Instability and the Medium Term View
I was reading a summary of Jeremy Grantham’s remarks in GMO’s recent quarterly analysis. And it occurred to me that a lot of what we see there is predicated on some embedded longer-term assumptions...
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On Tim Geithner and my US bailout post-mortem
Yesterday, I wrote up a piece at the New York Times’ Room for Debate forum about the legacy that Tim Geithner left behind, given his recent memoir “Stress Test”. The question was : “Did the government...
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The British political landscape after the EU referendum
This is going to be a quick post to update you on where I think things are headed now that we have the two final candidates for UK Prime Minister. My overall view continues to be that the base case is...
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Donald Trump and the return of Rockefeller Republicanism
With the Republicans taking both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency, the potential for Trump to reshape the party in his image is immense. The question now regarding the Trump economic...
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Why the Brexit risk is now higher, not lower
When the Brexit vote first happened, I indicated that I didn’t see the huge risk to the UK that others did. In fact, I thought the initial tail risks were elsewhere, like the Italian banking system....
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Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA...
This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he “agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time,” showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less...
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More on why Trump’s woes aren’t driving markets
This is a brief follow-up on the last post I wrote about how markets aren’t freaking out about the Trump scandals. I wrote that "this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative -...
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Some thoughts on full employment and this asset-based economic recovery
I see that Dartmouth economics professor Danny Blanchflower is talking about slack in the US labour market because he believes the Fed is premature in assessing its full employment mandate as...
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We are in the most dangerous period in the business cycle
Why would I be writing about ‘danger’ when we are experiencing the first synchronized global economic upturn in over 8 years? It’s the business cycle. The post We are in the most dangerous period in...
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Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase
Walmarts plan to raise the minimum pay for some employees to $11 an hour is big news. I also think this is good news for Trump and the Republicans as well as for wage rates in the US. The post Some...
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This market correction reduces the risk of over-tightening
Yesterday’s market meltdown - and today's reaction - reduces the risk that the Fed will over-tighten, taking froth out of an over-extended market. The post This market correction reduces the risk of...
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The Economics of Rising Populism
Fear political populism and the loss of democracy but embrace economic populism as necessary. The post The Economics of Rising Populism appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Become a Patron!
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The march higher in US interest rates will continue
Rising inflation expectations are pushing interest rates higher. But Fed moves matter more. If the data continue to show growth in the economy, markets will move toward the Fed and interest rates will...
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NAFTA talks contentious, but China will be even more difficult
Regardless of what happens in NAFTA, we are going to see the Trump Administration put its 'America First' trade policy in play. Likely within the month, tariffs are coming. The post NAFTA talks...
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